THE SINE CURVE:BUY THE DIP MARKET
India continues to be buy the dip market, and August was no different. Global markets tumbled on August 5 after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years from 10bps to 25bps – creating fears of massive yen carry trade unwinding globally. JPY appreciated more than 10% against the […]
THE SINE CURVE : WINDS OF CHANGE – PART 3
BEING TOO FAR AHEAD OF YOUR TIME IS INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM BEING WRONG – HOWARD MARKS “…HE DIDN’T BELIEVE THERE WERE MANY, IF ANY, STRONG THREEQUELS OUT THERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF “ROCKY III” …” – LEGENDARY FILM DIRECTOR CHRISTOPHER NOLAN, COMMENTING ON THE MAKING OF ‘THE DARK KNIGHT RISES’ – THE THIRD SEQUEL OF THE […]
The SINE CURVE : WINDS OF CHANGE – PART 2
“THE HISTORY OF MARKETS IS ONE OF OVERREACTION ON BOTH SIDES” – PETER BERNSTEIN. “THE FACT IS THAT STRATEGIES WHICH PERFORM BADLY IN CERTAIN MARKET CONDITIONS CAN WORK SURPRISINGLY WELL IN OTHERS” – PETER BERNSTEIN The June ‘Winds of Change’ impacted Ambit 365 adversely. The month’s top performers were IT, private banks, and consumer companies, […]
THE SINE CURVE: WINDS OF CHANGE
“VOLATILITY IS A SYMPTOM, THAT PEOPLE HAVE NO IDEA OF THE UNDERLYING VALUE” – JEREMY GRANTHAM “WHEN A LONG TERM TREND LOSES ITS MOMENTUM, THE SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY TENDS TO RISE. IT IS EASY TO SEE WHY IT SHOULD BE SO; THE TREND FOLLOWING CROWD IS DISORIENTED.” – GEORGE SOROS Despite the tumultuous volatility in May, […]
THE SINE CURVE: RISK IS RISING
“SKEPTICISM AND PESSIMISM AREN’T SYNONYMOUS. SKEPTICISM CALLS FOR PESSIMISM WHEN OPTIMISM IS EXCESSIVE. BUT IT ALSO CALLS FOR OPTIMISM WHEN PESSIMISM IS EXCESSIVE.” HOWARD MARKS, IN HIS NEWSLETTER ‘THE LIMITS OF NEGATIVISM” “I’ve been in China for 27 years, and this is probably the lowest confidence I’ve ever seen,” said a senior China strategist commenting […]
THE SINE CURVE: KABHI HAAN KABHI NAA
“..IF THE ECONOMY EVOLVES BROADLY AS EXPECTED, IT WILL LIKELY BE APPROPRIATE TO BEGIN DIALING BACK POLICY RESTRAINT AT SOME POINT THIS YEAR” – J POWELL. While the dovish pivot by the US Fed during the March FOMC meeting was welcomed by the markets, over the last year the hot and cold over the rates […]
THE SINE CURVE: NARRATIVES VS NUMBERS
“NEVER LET THE TRUTH GET IN THE WAY OF A GOOD STORY” – MARK TWAIN. However, narratives work only for some time in the markets, and eventually, the numbers do take over. Within the long cycle of India’s growth, there are smaller counter-cycles. That is the essence of our Sine Curve framework, that nothing is […]
THE SINE CURVE: CHOPPY WATERS
CHOPPY WATERS! The market turned choppy in January, following a very strong Santa rally in December. Nifty did 3 sharp downs and 3 sharp ups during the month and finally closed flat. Performance dispersion between frontline stocks was stark. In Nifty, the top 10 names were up 10-23%, and the bottom 10 names were down […]
THE SINE CURVE: SANTA RALLY!
SANTA RALLY! While the markets have seen a strong Santa rally in the past, December 2023 stood out in terms of strength of participation. Average Daily turnover was 50% higher than in November, and double that of December 2022. It was a solid month for IPOs- 12 IPOs raised Rs8932cr this month, compared to the […]
THE SINE CURVE: NEW RISK IN TOWN
THERE IS A NEW RISK IN TOWN! Rising US bond yields have become a cause for worry for the markets. This year, after consolidating from January to April, yields have been rising. The US 10-year yield made its 2023 low of ~3.25% in April – the markets initially took the rising yield in its stride. […]
